Fact or Fiction: 50 Million People Without Healthcare

Every stump speech, every health care forum, basically every opportunity that President Obama has, he tells us that there are 50 million Americans without health care. By health care, he means some type of insurance. That sounds like a lot to me, so it's time to dig and find out where exactly that number comes from and is it entirely accurate. 

The number of people with health insurance coverage increased by 1.4 million to 247.3 million between 2004 and 2005, and the number without such coverage rose by 1.3 million to 46.6 million (from 15.6 percent in 2004 to 15.9 percent in 2005). Original Here

So far, 50 million may be a rounded but close to accurate number. I need to know more though. Do rich people pay for insurance or are they fee for service? Do we count illegal immigrants in this number? They are counted in the census so it would be assumed reasonably yes. Let's dig.

Government estimates as of January 2005 place the number of undocumented immigrants at 10.5 million Original Here

So if we take the January 2005 numbers and use the same growth formula as is being done with the uninsured inflation number (46.6 to 50 in three years) about 6.8% and apply it over a 4 year period at 2.25% per year, we get 11.45 million illegal immigrants if we allow constant growth as done in the Obama estimate. 50 million -11.45 million illegal immigrants leaves 38.55 million Americans without health insurance. 

That takes care of the immigration numbers but what of the elective uninsured? Lets dig.

Uninsured Family Members in Thousands Based on Income  Original Here page 29

Household Income                                2005     2006 

Less than $25,000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,452   13,933 

$25,000 to $49,999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14,651   15,319 

$50,000 to $74,999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,826    8,459 

$75,000 or more . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,886    9,283 

If you do the math here with a reasonable assumption that households from 50K and up can afford some type of health insurance and are electing not to that gives us a staggering 17.7 million who are opting out. 

Here's the new total: 20.85 million.

I think the 20.85 million number is relatively attainable and accurate. The 50 million, not so much. If 17.7 million are opting out, why are we going to develop a program for them? If they are not paying taxes and not citizens, why are we developing a program for the illegal immigrants?

I don't mind helping my fellow man but I won't foot the bill for illegal immigrants and people who don't want it. 

President Obama, tell it like it is, not exaggerated for effect and the check is in the mail.