Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Fact or Fiction: 50 Million People Without Healthcare

Every stump speech, every health care forum, basically every opportunity that President Obama has, he tells us that there are 50 million Americans without health care. By health care, he means some type of insurance. That sounds like a lot to me, so it's time to dig and find out where exactly that number comes from and is it entirely accurate

The number of people with health insurance coverage increased by 1.4 million to 247.3 million between 2004 and 2005, and the number without such coverage rose by 1.3 million to 46.6 million (from 15.6 percent in 2004 to 15.9 percent in 2005). Original Here

So far, 50 million may be a rounded but close to accurate number. I need to know more though. Do rich people pay for insurance or are they fee for service? Do we count illegal immigrants in this number? They are counted in the census so it would be assumed reasonably yes. Let's dig.

Government estimates as of January 2005 place the number of undocumented immigrants at 10.5 million Original Here

So if we take the January 2005 numbers and use the same growth formula as is being done with the uninsured inflation number (46.6 to 50 in three years) about 6.8% and apply it over a 4 year period at 2.25% per year, we get 11.45 million illegal immigrants if we allow constant growth as done in the Obama estimate. 50 million -11.45 million illegal immigrants leaves 38.55 million Americans without health insurance. 
That takes care of the immigration numbers but what of the elective uninsured? Lets dig.

Uninsured Family Members in Thousands Based on Income  Original Here page 29
Household Income                                2005     2006 
Less than $25,000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,452   13,933 
$25,000 to $49,999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14,651   15,319 
$50,000 to $74,999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,826    8,459 
$75,000 or more . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,886    9,283 

If you do the math here with a reasonable assumption that households from 50K and up can afford some type of health insurance and are electing not to that gives us a staggering 17.7 million who are opting out. 
Here's the new total: 20.85 million.

I think the 20.85 million number is relatively attainable and accurate. The 50 million, not so much. If 17.7 million are opting out, why are we going to develop a program for them? If they are not paying taxes and not citizens, why are we developing a program for the illegal immigrants?

I don't mind helping my fellow man but I won't foot the bill for illegal immigrants and people who don't want it. 
President Obama, tell it like it is, not exaggerated for effect and the check is in the mail. 

2 comments:

D.W. Jones said...

I think I get what you're trying to say, and it's well researched but I have a couple of issues with the data and conclusion.

First off, the article you cited actually gives the statistics for naturalized and non-citizen immigrants who are uninsured and your estimates are pretty close. Good work there.
However, it's not true that undocumented immigrants don't pay taxes. Everybody who purchases goods in this country pays taxes. Sales taxes are a very large part of the state and local revenues. But let's assume you're just talking about income tax. OK. I'll point out that over 30 million Americas citizens don't pay income tax either. They're either outside of the tax bracket for filing, or they're receiving tax credits that offset (or even outweigh) their income tax payments. That's why we get refunds at tax time.

But the real point is that most undocumented aliens do, in fact, pay income taxes. As of 2006 that number was approximately 8 million of the estimated 12 million total. It's a well-perpetrated myth that undocumented immigrants are a drain on our national resources. In 1996, the IRS started issuing identification numbers to undocumented immigrants who don't have social security numbers. Immigrants use those numbers for tax purposes. They're paying just as much as the rest of us. But on top of that, many undocumented immigrants use fake ID numbers with their employers so they're actually paying income taxes, yet receiving none of the social benefits. That's free money for the government.

However, 3 years ago the federal government made it a crime to extend aid to any undocumented alien. So, they're paying taxes to benefit our revenue and receiving no welfare in return.

Point 2: While $50,000 may seem like a lot of money, consider the cost of living in cities like New York, Chicago and Los Angeles. The average cost of family health insurance for a self-employed worker is over $10,000. When you're paying $24,000 in rent, all of the sudden insurance seems a lot more expensive and $50K a lot more paltry. So, it's not safe to assume that anybody is opting out of health insurance simply because they don't want it.

But I guess the biggest issue I have is that I'm not certain what the overall problem is. Are you saying that since there's only 20.8 million (sic) people without health insurance rather than 50 million that we shouldn't have a universal health care plan? Or are you upset with the presumed inflation by President Obama?

I can't say that I personally am affected by either. I feel like if there's anyone in this country that can't afford health care that it should be provided for them, no matter how small the sample. And if it takes inflating the numbers a bit to get it, then fine.

Unknown said...

To ease your mind, it was just a fact finding mission. I felt like the number was a bit high and wanted to try to garner some information to try to get a true number. As far as healthcare, as long as I retain my privatized rights in choice of provider and hospital, I think all Americans should have healthcare.
I read on the census site (previous citation) that 56% of immigrants below the poverty line don't have healthcare. I actually witnessed this first hand example in my clinic. A man comes in, moved from California, was on state medicaid out there and tried to get it here. no one he talked to previous to our clinic knew you had to drive 20 miles to the county seat to apply and gain benefits. He had been making phone calls for two months and couldnt find anyone to point him in the right direction. We got him on the right path with maps and phone numbers and even setup his appt for him. BUT, how many are there like this? I also wonder what the number of people is in the census that are covered by their spouses insurance that list their employer does not insure them. The way the survey reads is very gray.

50K was really a baseline to go from, as you saw the survey reads 50-75k and 75k+. I hear the rent and outgoing vs incoming argument and agree with that. Healthcare would definitely take a backseat. So here is the question, is 75K enough of a qualifier? It seems that 2K more per month might get it there but there are so many other things that factor into Metropolitan living that I am unfamiliar with (keep in mind that Lubbock is the largest city I've lived in.)
I'm glad you responded. This isn't an article for attacking, just a fact finding mission. You can't hardly trust the news on either side anymore. I am just going to make my own side. I wish we could have full disclosure of which numbers they are using.

Stay tuned for my next post. The ARRA wont benefit most free clinics in places other than the biggest cities and even then, not all the money goes to the clinics to improve access etc. It's bizarre. Non profits dont qualify either in certain circumstances.